2019 Grammy Nominations: Predictions
Regardless of how frustrating a show like this can be, the Grammys are the most exciting night of the year for artists, music journalists and fans like myself. I’ll be going through the major four categories in-depth 🙂
Record Of The YearÂ
- I Like It- Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny and J. Balvin
- The Joke- Brandi Carlile
- This Is America- Childish Gambino
- God’s Plan- Drake
- Shallow- Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper
- All The Stars- Kendrick Lamar and SZA
- Rockstar- Post Malone ft. 21 Savage
- The Middle- Zedd ft. Maren Morris and Grey
Cardi B was EVERYWHERE for the last half of 2017 and all of 2018. That’s why it’s not surprising to see her here or in any of the other categories she nabbed. “I Like It” is a monumental song, one that crossed over into multiple markets, and is very, very likeable. Cardi is doing what Nicki Minaj thought she didn’t have to do anymore, and that is appeal to both her general audience, urban hip-hop fans, as well as a wider, more general audience. After the success of “Despacito” last year, the songs success is not surprising and neither would a win here be. It would be a very safe choice, and would catapult Cardi to a place that I don’t think she’s ready to go to yet, but it’s all there in front of her.
Seeing “The Middle” here, and in any of these categories, is not surprising but also very frustrating. I enjoyed the crap out of the song for the first few weeks, but soon grew to detest it, as I realized just how much it sounds like it was just spit out of a computer with all of the components of most modern pop right now. It was first used in a Target commercial that aired during last years Grammy ceremony, which says it all right there. I’m thrilled that Maren Morris got her huge mainstream push, but saddened that it had to be on a song that probably had record executives masturbating in their office chairs, dollar bills the subject of their pleasure. This ALSO has a very good chance of winning, but it would be a damn shame if it does.
“God’s Plan” by Drake and “Rockstar” by Post Malone are both ideal candidates for the “it was a huge hit, but it’s not the artists best song” conversation. I know that argument doesn’t often matter when it comes to the Grammys, and there was no way it ever would when it came to “God’s Plan” with as big of a hit as that was, but the critic in me would have much preferred to see “Nice For What” and “Psycho” in this category instead of the former pair. “Rockstar” does a really good job of removing Posty from the rap-exclusive conversation, and “God’s Plan” is one of those records you’ll remember for decades, but they both don’t do it for me.
“This Is America” could be the sleeper pick here. It was nowhere as big on the radio as most of the other songs here, but culturally, it probably made the biggest impact. Is a lot of its appeal based off of a music video? Sure! The same could be said for “Shallow”, which is best used in the context of “A Star Is Born” itself, but I think I’d be ok with either of those songs winning, even if “Shallow” is typically a bit too singer/songwriter-ish for the Grammys.
That leaves “The Joke”, an incredible song by an underrated artist who is sure to have a lengthy second leg of her already-accomplished career, and “All The Stars”, a once-in-a-lifetime song that is such a, and I hate using this word knowing that so many others have, moment in pop culture and music in general. The latter is easily my pick….a victory lap for Kendrick after a monstrous album cycle with “DAMN.”, as well as a true welcome for SZA into the high waters of mainstream music. Unfortunately, her lack of live performance skills (no offense) will keep her from attaining the levels of success she should have, but this song will always be a notch in her belt.
My personal pick and the route I think the Grammys will go is the same, and that is “All The Stars”.
Album Of The Year
- Invasion Of Privacy- Cardi B
- Beerbongs and Bentleys- Post Malone
- Dirty Computer- Janelle Monae
- Golden Hour- Kacey Musgraves
- By The Way, I Forgive You- Brandi Carlile
- H.E.R- H.E.R
- Black Panther: The Album, Music From and Inspired By…- Various Artists
- Scorpion- Drake
This is probably my favorite category of the major four. The obvious choices are here, as you’d expect them to be, but so are some of the albums that were discussed right from the get-go, most of which could have either been completely ignored or held on the pedestal they should be on.
Drake’s “Scorpion” has it’s moments….”Emotionless”, with it’s incredibly resonant Mariah Carey sample, “In My Feelings”, easily Drake’s most accessible hit ever, “Mob Ties”, “Jaded”, “Talk Up” with Jay-Z and “After Dark” with the late Static Major and Ty Dolla $ign. But is it album of the year? No. It’s bloated, already worn with time and comes nowhere close to measuring up to what is, in my opinion, his best work, “If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late”.
Cardi B’s “Invasion Of Privacy” is the panhandle record of the year. Which is CRAZY considering “Beerbongs and Bentley’s” is here too. Cardi has worked her ass off and has improved dramatically over the years, but the record just isn’t good enough to be labeled the best of the year, as much as the hip-hop community wants it to be. As good as “Bartier Cardi”, “Be Careful” and “I Do” are, you also have the atrocious “She Bad” with YG, “Ring”, Kehlani’s second collaboration in the last year or so to somehow sneak it’s way to being a hit (the first being “Nowhere Fast” with Eminem) despite being terribly mediocre and “Money Bag” which is just incredibly basic. At least for my taste. Sorry.
“H.E.R” is a stellar effort by H.E.R, and with songs like “Focus”, “Hard Place”, “Best Part”, her cover of Drake’s “Jungle”, “Free” and “Gone Away” under her belt so early in her career, she is sure to be around for a long, long time. But with records like “Dirty Computer” and the Black Panther soundtrack to compete with, the project just gets swallowed up. Janelle sounds so seasoned on her project, so effortlessly creating the blueprint for what it means to be evocative, creative and other-worldly, both musically and thematically, while Black Panther is easily the biggest and most influential movie soundtrack since “Avatar”, far surpassing it.
Perhaps the Grammys will choose this category as the surprise pick, and I believe both Kacey Musgraves’ and Brandi Carlile’s records are the ones to beat. “Golden Hour”, a classic country record in an era that has resulted in the loss of the heart and soul of the genre, and “By The Way, I Forgive You”, a record that, like Sturgill Simpson and Beck’s projects before her, will be largely ignored by the majority outside of Carlile’s core audience, despite its depth and endless creativity.
My pick: “Golden Hour”
Prediction of the Grammy’s pick: “Invasion Of Privacy”
Song Of The Year
- All The Stars (Kendrick Lamar and SZA)
- Boo’d Up (Ella Mai)
- God’s Plan (Drake)
- In My Blood (Shawn Mendes)
- The Joke (Brandi Carlile)
- The Middle (Zedd ft. Maren Morris and Grey)
- Shallow (Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper)
- This Is America (Childish Gambino
I’d like to quickly erase “The Middle” from the conversation for being the biggest industry pet project I’ve ever heard. Oops. “God’s Plan” should also be removed, if for no other reason then the absolute crime of “Hotline Bling” being nominated at the 2017 ceremony, it’s relevance expired LONG beforehand.
I’ll give Shawn Mendes credit….”In My Blood” is the best song of his career. It doesn’t quite reach the kind of Kings Of Leon-style glory he often talked about wanting to have, but it’s as big of a bonafide arena anthem as we’re gonna get from anyone in the teen/young-adult pop landscape.
The story of “Boo’d Up” never ceases to amaze me. It had been out for well over a year before it really started to blow up around the country, and yet it still sounded so freshly crafted. Just a near-perfect crossover that, like Cardi B’s “Bodak Yellow” last year, had everyone, guys and girls, singing along with it.
This particular category goes to the songwriter(s) of a track, which makes me think that “This Is America” and “All The Stars” are out of the equation. Both are well-written, but again, are best used in the context of visual media. “Shallow”, on the other hand, I believe crosses that line between character and artist, mostly because I didn’t think Gaga’s character in “A Star Is Born” was all that different from her. Then again, it’s the same type of singer-songwriter type deal that I thought for sure would snag Justin Bieber a win a few years ago for “Love Yourself” only to be ousted by Adele’s “Hello”, so anything can happen.
That leaves “The Joke”, a spellbinding Americana/rock anthem with a crucial message for anyone who feels misrepresented or lost. Carlile’s voice is mesmerizing and assuming she performs it live at the ceremony, it could very well be the performance of the night.
My pick: “The Joke”
Prediction of the Grammy’s pick: “Boo’d Up”
Best New ArtistÂ
- Chloe x Halle
- Luke Combs
- Greta Van Fleet
- H.E.R
- Dua Lipa
- Margo Price
- Bebe Rexha
- Jorja Smith
Bebe Rexha has worked incredibly hard over her career thus far, but will probably not be remembered as anything but an artist who was put on as a feature with more popular acts (Martin Garrix, Florida Georgia Line). Troye Sivan could have easily taken her slot and it would have made all the sense in the world.
Chloe x Halle and Jorja Smith are both viable choices, but are likely just a little TOO new and niche specific to score the win. Luke Combs has a giant voice, but is lost in the shuffle here, as is Margo Price, who is excellent, but hasn’t had nearly enough exposure. Greta Van Fleet is a decent enough nostalgia act, but personally, we had Led Zeppelin decades ago and no one, absolutely no one, is going to come along and be the current incarnation. So sorry boys.
It’s very easily down to H.E.R and Dua Lipa for me. Dua is the safest choice imaginable out of all the contenders, but her success has far surpassed what I ever imagined her achieving seeing her live so early in her career. She is the farthest from a polished live performer or even what you would consider an interesting vocalist, but with hits like “New Rules”, “IDGAF” and “One Kiss” under her belt already, she is a guaranteed hitmaker. H.E.R is still finding her pocket, her lane, her artistry, but what she’s done so far is remarkable. I’d love for the Grammys to realize that Dua doesn’t exactly need this, and give it to H.E.R. She could very easily follow in SZA’s path and possibly even exceed it.
My pick, which is very left field: Margo Price
Prediction of Grammys pick: Dua Lipa